Climate

Climate science, environmental policy, and sustainability predictions.

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Will the Iran Oil Crisis Force Europe to Abandon Its Coal Phase-Out?

Italy just voted to delay its coal phase-out by 13 years. Not months. Years. The new deadline is 2038, pushed from 2025, and the law passed with barely a murmur of opposition in Meloni's parliament. Germany is reviewing whether to bring 6.5 gigawatts of reserve coal capacity back to market. I've been modeling energy transitions since 2018, and what strikes me isn't that countries are backsliding, that's predictable under supply shocks, it's the speed. Six weeks of the Strait of Hormu

Apr 7, 2026 P: 55%

Cinematic illustration — Europe carbon tax

Climate

Will Europe's Carbon Border Tax Survive China's Retaliation by 2027?

The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism went live January 1. China calls it protectionism. India's steel exports already collapsed 31%. With the first certificate surrender due September 2027, the question isn't whether CBAM survives, but whether it survives intact.

Apr 1, 2026 P: 75%

Climate

Can 24 States Save America's Climate Rulebook from Trump's EPA?

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin finalized the rescission of the 2009 Endangerment Finding on February 12, 2026. Within weeks, 24 states and environmental groups filed suit in the DC Circuit. Our PRISM framework puts the probability of judicial reversal at 60%.

Apr 1, 2026 P: 60%

Climate

Will China's Five-Year Plan Actually Deliver Carbon Peak by 2030?

China's 15th Five-Year Plan targets 17% carbon intensity cuts and 25% non-fossil energy, but vague coal timelines and a missed previous target raise doubts. Renewables are growing faster than demand for the first time — we put the odds at 55%.

Mar 31, 2026 P: 55%