Election forecasts, policy predictions, and political analysis.
On May 7, 2026, the Court of International Trade struck down Trump's 10% global tariffs in a 2-1 ruling, the second legal defeat in four months. Trump's response was telling: he promised to do it 'a different way.' The question is whether the US faces a constitutional confrontation over trade powers before end of 2026.
Polymarket prices a Democratic House at 85%. Trump's approval sits at 35%. Special elections show 30 GOP seats flipped since 2025. History says the president's party loses House seats 90% of the time. But the Senate math tells a different story, and midterm polls 7 months out have a lousy track record.
Peter Magyar is either about to topple Europe's most durable autocrat or about to discover that structural authoritarianism runs deeper than modern polling can measure. Hungary votes on April 12. The prediction markets say Magyar's Tisza party has a 67% shot at winning the parliamentary election, yet pro-government pollsters insist Orban's Fidesz still leads. This is the kind of bet that makes or breaks your year. <!-- CHAPTER: CONTEXTE -->
Eight million Americans marched on March 28 — the largest single-day protest in US history. With Trump at 36% approval and the generic ballot at D+5.5, our ORACLE model puts the probability of a Democratic House majority at 70%.
Federal prosecutors in Manhattan are probing Polymarket trades for insider trading, but deregulatory headwinds and industry resilience keep our kill probability at just 25%. The real question is whether this probe is the first domino or a dead end.