Tech

Technology product launches, company developments, and tech market forecasts.

Can SpaceX Actually Close Above $1.5 Trillion on IPO Day?
Tech

Can SpaceX Actually Close Above $1.5 Trillion on IPO Day?

SpaceX filed confidentially with the SEC on April 1, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise. But IPO pricing depends on roadshow reception, geopolitical risk, and whether retail demand justifies a 40% premium.

Apr 15, 2026 P: 58%
Will Artemis II's Success Accelerate the Moon Landing Timeline to 2028?
Tech

Will Artemis II's Success Accelerate the Moon Landing Timeline to 2028?

NASA's Artemis II crew splashed down April 10, 2026, breaking Apollo 13's distance record. The mission's success reshapes Artemis III timeline from 2029 to 2028, but technical and political headwinds remain.

Apr 15, 2026 P: 72%
Will Prediction Markets Survive the 'Death Markets' Backlash Before Congress Kills Them?
Tech

Will Prediction Markets Survive the 'Death Markets' Backlash Before Congress Kills Them?

Will Prediction Markets Survive the 'Death Markets' Backlash Before Congress Kills Them?

Apr 7, 2026 P: 55%
Cinematic illustration — Will California's AI Rules Become America's De Facto Standard Before Federal Preemption Kills Them?
Tech

Will California's AI Rules Become America's De Facto Standard Before Federal Preemption Kills Them?

Will California's AI Rules Become America's De Facto Standard Before Federal Preemption Kills Them?

Apr 4, 2026 P: 60%
Cinematic illustration — Will the White House AI Preemption Gambit Survive Congress?
Tech

Will the White House AI Preemption Gambit Survive Congress?

The White House released its National AI Policy Framework on March 20, pushing for broad federal preemption of state AI laws. Democrats countered with the GUARDRAILS Act the same day. With a razor-thin House majority and preemption already failing twice, we put the odds of passage before November midterms at 30%.

Mar 31, 2026 P: 30%
Cinematic illustration — Will Artemis II Actually Launch on Schedule Tomorrow?
Tech

Will Artemis II Actually Launch on Schedule Tomorrow?

NASA's Artemis II faces its April 1-6 launch window after five delays and a helium seal repair. Our PRISM analysis puts launch probability at 75% — higher than Polymarket but tempered by the reality that spaceflight is genuinely hard.

Mar 31, 2026 P: 75%
Cinematic illustration — Will Apple's Vibe Coding Crackdown Survive the DMA?
Tech

Will Apple's Vibe Coding Crackdown Survive the DMA?

Apple pulled three vibe coding platforms from the App Store in March 2026, but the EU's DMA enforcement could force a reversal. We estimate a 60% probability Apple holds the line through December.

Mar 31, 2026 P: 60%