Understanding Election Forecasting

Election forecasting has evolved dramatically over the past two decades. What was once an art form practiced by seasoned political observers has become increasingly mathematical, data-driven, and transparent about its limitations.

The State of Current Polling

Our latest analysis combines data from seventeen different polling organizations, weighted by historical accuracy and recency. The aggregate shows significant variance across regions.

Model Construction

Our election forecasting model combines weighted polling aggregates, prediction market prices, economic indicators, historical voting patterns, and expert judgment.