Tournament Bracket Science

March Madness is one of the few events where predictions can be tested in real-time over weeks of competition. This makes it an ideal testing ground for forecasting models.

Seed Bias and Upset Rates

Historically, lower seeds upset higher seeds about 20-25% of the time in first-round matchups. Our models flag several first-round games with >40% upset probability.

Player Performance and Injury Risk

Unlike professional sports, college basketball has high variance in performance due to young players and inconsistent play. Injury is also more disruptive in single-elimination tournaments.