The Strait of Hormuz carries 25% of global oil supply: 21 million barrels per day under normal conditions. Iran's April 2026 blockade, enforced by IRGC threats and drone strikes, has reduced throughput to near-zero. That's a 21 Mbbl/d shock. For perspective: the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo cut 5-7 Mbbl/d. The 2011 Libyan civil war cut 1.6 Mbbl/d. We are in uncharted territory.
Will the Strait of Hormuz Blockade Push Oil Past $140 Before Summer 2026?
48%
CHANCE 48% Will the Strait of Hormuz Blockade Push Oil Past $140 Before Summer 2026?
Executive Brief
The Dossier
The IEA called this 'the most significant supply shock in oil market history.' That's not hyperbole, it's mathematical. When 25% of supply evaporates, prices don't inch up. They jump. Brent crude (our reference price for this prediction) rose from $82/bbl on April 1 to $118/bbl on April 3. That's a 44% spike in 48 hours.
Markets initially expected the blockade to last 2-3 weeks. As of April 5, intelligence assessments now put the timeline at 6-12 weeks minimum. That's the supply shock getting worse, not better.
Appendix & Sources
Key Metrics at Time of Analysis
Brent Crude (Apr 5, 2026)
118
Strait of Hormuz Supply Loss
21
Global Supply at Risk
25
Oil Price Target
140
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